UFC on Fox: Take 3

This weekend marks the UFC’s third card on the FOX network.  When the deal was first signed in August of last year fight fans everywhere were overjoyed with thoughts of all-time classic fights on free television.

Instead of instant classics the two cards have produced a 59 minute-long talk show with a 60 second heavyweight title thrown in and a three fight decision-fest on the following card. While the ratings have been strong you can bet Dana White is hoping for some fireworks Saturday night, especially going up against these guys.

                                                       

UFC 145 was not very kind to the prediction machine.  I continued to pick against Jon Jones for some reason and put trust in veterans Miguel Torres and Mark Hominick… Thanks for nothing guys.

Previews and Predictions

Last Week: 2-4

Year: 20-15

Pat “HD”Barry vs. Lavar “Big” Johnson

How do you cure the disease knows as Decisionitis? Simple answer, have these two slugging heavyweights kick off the main card. The always entertaining Pat Barry is coming off a devastating KO of Christian Morecraft where he showed an improved ground game as well. HD is right there with Junior Dos Santos as the most technical striker in the division and owns the most vicious leg kicks in the company.

Johnson announced his Octagon arrival with authority by doing something no man had ever done in knocking out Joey Beltran, with uppercuts straight out of a video game.  Before his UFC debut Johnson was on a two fight skid against average heavyweight competition in Strikeforce.

Do not blink during this fight because it can end at any second.  Both guys have heavy hands and likely won’t look to take it to the ground.

Barry KO 1^st Round followed by  a celebration almost as cool as this.

Alan “the Talent”Belcher vs. Rousimar “Toquinho” Palhares

Belcher put an exclamation mark on his comeback fro ma career threatening eye injury with a submission win over Jason MacDonald at UFC Fight Night 25 last September. After taking another break due to fatherhood “the Talent” looks to propel himself to title contention with his toughest fight to date. Belcher is well rounded and if not for a controversial decision loss to Yoshihiro Akiyama he would be on a 6 fight win streak.

Palhares is one of the most dangerous fighters in the UFC.  Some people consider him dirty but I think he is just aggressive and fights to win at all costs. He is a heel hooking machine and despite the fact everyone knows he is going for it, they can not stop it. He has won 6 of his last 7 fights and is a guy no one wants to face in the division right now.

The winner of this fight will certainly “be in the mix”” as Dana White puts it. This was the hardest fight for me to predict on this card.  If Belcher fights smart I think he can certainly grind out a decision but if he gets too aggressive Belcher could be in the market for a new leg.

Belcher Unanimous Decision 29-28

Josh “Kos” Koscheck vs. Johny Hendricks

Josh Koscheck has been in the UFC since his days on the first season of the Ultimate Fighter. On the show he was strictly a four-time All American wrestler with a very limited striking skill set. Over the years it has been fun to see him develop into one of the best welterweights in the sport.  His last fight against Mike Pierce was a disappointing decision win.  I believe Kos knows this is last chance to make a title run so he did not want to take any chances and risk falling to the middle of the division.

Johny Hendricks is also a four-time All American wrestler, however he posses more raw power than Koscheck. Hendricks who was often seen as another guy in the division is currently on a three fight winning streak, highlighted by a 12 second knockout over Jon Fitch. Now, he finds himself on the brink of a title shot with only one man standing in his way.

Koscheck is the more experienced fighter of the two and is in a good place mentally after switching camps. I have been a Hendricks doubter for awhile now and think this may be too much of a push after just one punch but he definitely can prove me wrong this weekend. Don’t expect a barn burner in this one, look for Koscheck to pick his spots and grind out a victory.

Koscheck Unanimous Decision 30-27

Nate Diaz vs. Jim Miller

Now I know I can not hide my love of the Diaz brothers but I love the fact I get to watch one of them fight on free television.  My one concern is does the FCC feel the same way? The brash-Stockton native put on a clinic against Donald Cerrone in ways no one thought possible.  Diaz has looked great since his return to the lightweight division and can win a fight wherever it goes. His boxing, like his brother’s is dangerous and also has earned his black belt in jiu-jitsu from Cesar Gracie.

Jim Miller is one of the most underrated fighters on the planet. He saw his seven fight win streak snapped by champion Benson Henderson but bounced back with a submission victory over Melvin Guillard in January. Miller is a put bull who will look to take Diaz down and use ground and pound along with his own black belt skills to contain the dangerous 209er.

The five round-format favors Nate Diaz but Miller is not one to gas either. Diaz gets in the most trouble against strong wrestlers so this is a great test for him in order to earn a title shot. This is one that is likely to go in the late rounds because they both are smart fighters with great chins. I expect Diaz to out strike Miller in the same way he did Cowboy and take home the #1 contender spot in an entertaining fight of the night. 
Diaz Unanimous Decision 49-46

Future Lightweight Champion! 209 for life.
Credit: MMAlinker

If you liked this article please leave a comment below and vote on the poll to the right a

Also, I started a weekly podcast called Split Decision on http://www.sportsgeeksusa.com/ with my friend Ryan Penney. Feel free to leave your predictions on our facebook page. The show airs 3 PM daily Monday-Friday. 

Please follow myself and the show on Twitter.  We recap all the fights and news in the MMA world while also interviewing fighters, promoters and trainers. 

UFC 143: Someone is Getting Slapped

The day that the mixed martial arts world has been waiting for since the beginning of time is here, Nick Diaz fighting for the (interim) welterweight championship of the world.  UFC 144 was originally headlined by Diaz and George St. Pierre in what would be one of my dream matches but Carlos Condit is more than an adequate fill-in.

If it’s possible I highly recommend watching the Primetime special on Diaz and Condit.  It provides an in depth look at two fighters outside the Octagon.  This main event needs to deliver, especially after a disappointing UFC on Fox 2 card that caused Dana White to skip the press conference.

Prediction Time:

Prediction Record:

Last week: 2-1 Year: 7-5

Ed Herman versus Clifford Starks

Herman has been in the UFC since his days on The Ultimate Fighter 3.  He is someone that always narrowly avoids being cut, compiling a 6-5 record that includes two separate back to back losses. After sustaining a knee injury in 2009 against Aaron Simpson, Herman has looked like a different fighter with back to back first round stoppages.

I saw Starks make his UFC debut in person at UFC 137 and I came away less than impressed. In his defense, he took the fight two weeks after his previous fight and it was his UFC debut. Starks’ best chance in this fight is ground Herman with relentless take downs and grind out a decision.

I like Herman’s determination and experience here as he hands Starks his first loss.

Herman by Submission round 1. 

Renan Barão versus Scott Jorgensen

Barão has been on an absolute tear since his pro debut in 2005 and will be looking to extend his unbeaten streak to 29. He is a training partner of Jose Aldo, last seen partying here, and has skills on the ground and on his feet. I also like the reach advantage Barão will have in this fight but the concern for Barão is that he hasn’t fought on nearly as many big fights as Jorgensen.

If it wasn’t for the main event, this match-up would be my guess for Fight of The Night. Jorgensen has been on a roll, going 7-1 in his last 8 fights with his only loss to current champion Dominick Cruz. Jorgensen has heavy hands, look at his KO from guard against Ken Stone, and tremendous wrestling.  He has been on a mainstay as a top 5 bantamweight for quite some time and will be looking to prove he is not a gatekeeper for the division.

I see Jorgensen trying to get this fight to the ground and leaving an opening that Barão takes advantage of.

Barão Submission round 2

Mike Pierce versus Josh Koscheck 

This fight at first glance seems like a huge mismatch. I think that is a huge disservice to Mike Pierce. His only losses are to top contenders Jon Fitch and Johny Hendricks, two guys who he almost beat, nearly finishing Fitch and a close decision to Hendricks.

Koscheck bounced from his title to GSP with a first round KO against legend Matt Hughes. I think he has shaken off the effects from his eye injury and will be using this to get back to a title shot. My one concern was that Koscheck would take this fight too lightly but based on the fact that Pierce called him out I think Koascheck will be looking to prove a point.

Koscheck Unanimous Decision 30-27

Fabricio Werdum versus Roy Nelson 

Werdum hasn’t been in the octagon since a Junior dos Santos sent him to Strikeforce. He had success, going 3-1 including his 2010 upset of the year against Fedor Emalianenko. In his fight against Overeem, Werdum won some of the standup exchanges, but decided to pull guard every twenty second for some reason.

Roy Nelson is an interesting character in the MMA world.  He has a great ground game but his conditioning is definitely a question mark larger than his waistline. Nelson does have a chance to end this standing. Werdum was rocked by a right hand, something Nelson has a very good one of, against Fedor before pulling off the submission.

Ultimately this fight come downs to conditioning and I see Nelson wearing down after first.

Werdum Unanimous decision 29-28

Carlos Condit versus Nick Diaz

Whenever these two fighters step in the cage it is likely they are leaving the cage with a bonus. Now, you put them against each other, guaranteed fireworks.

Condit comes from one of the best camp's in MMA so you know he will be prepared for this one. He may not be  on Nick's level on the ground but he is a purple belt and has 13 submission wins so he's no slouch.  

His last three fights have been entertaining, featuring a come from behind victory against  "The next GSP" Rory MacDonald, and two highlight reel knockouts against Dan Hardy and Stun Gun. The last WEC champion definitely has earned this match up…

against the last Strikeforce champion Diaz. I try my best to stay neutral when writing these previews but I am not going to try to hide my Diaz fan-boyism My walls are full of 2-0-9 scribbles and may utter the phrase "Don't be scared, home" from time to time.

Diaz is a scrapper and goes to finish fights.  He fights by "Stockton rules" so you know he is not looking to win on points.  His boxing is tremendous, has an iron chin and is elite on the ground.  The problem with his fighting style is that he takes a lot of punishment in order to strike the way he likes. Diaz has to be concerned with Condit's finishing power.

This fight is going to be a barn burner and actually from an entertainment value I prefer this one to either one of them against GSP.

Diaz TKO 4th Round.

Hes coming for you George!
credit: MMAmania.com

I would be an awful person if I did not wish a fond farewell to the gladiator man made famous by the UFC introductions. After many years of service the gladiator is now retired in favor of a brand new, highly expensive introduction. 

First the Internet people, now the Gladiator intro,
who's the next victim of Emperor Dana. 

If you liked this article please leave a comment below and vote on the poll to the right.  Also, as stated above, I started a weekly podcast called Split Decision on http://www.sportsgeeksusa.com/ with my friend Ryan Penney. Please follow myself and the show on Twitter.  We will recap all the fights and news in the MMA world while also interviewing fighters, promoters and trainers.