Let’s face it. UFC 149 was a total flop. Not only did I have my worst predictions of
all-time, the fights in general were awful. After a phenomenal preliminary
card, Matt Riddle and to a certain extent Renan
Barão were
the only fighters to show up.
The only thing stranger
than the Kongo-Jordan fight and Hector Lomabrd’s debut was news that broke
earlier this week. At the press
conference for UFC on Fox 4 Dana White announced the winner of the Brandan
Vera-Shogun Rua fight would receive a title shot. (My initial reaction).
After hours of social
media outrage good ole DW changed his mind and decided that if the winner
co-main event between Ryan Bader and Lyota Machida wins in more impressive
fashion than Rua or Vera than that person would receive the title shot.
(Revised reaction).
There are many issues
with this decision in my opinion. First
off, Vera is 1-2-1 in his last four fights and was originally scheduled
to face James Te-Huna. How does he go
from a Fuel card against a mid level fighter to a main event #1 contender fight
against a guy who has lost 2 of his last 3? Dana you make my head do this.
I’d much rather see
Phil Davis, who is on the under card, or Alexander Gustafson get a shot than
any of the four mentioned above. At the very least give Jon Jones a rematch
against this guy.
Now on to the picks…
The main card kicks
off with the return of Mike Swick (14-4 MMA, 9-3 UFC) to the Octagon. He has not fought in two and a half years and
is riding a two fight win streak. They
are his first two losses in the division after winning his first four at 170. A season 1 TUF alum Swick burst on the scene
with 5 wins (4 finishes) and projected to be a champion one day. Unfortunately, injuries have derailed his
career. Ring rust will be an issue and
who knows if his hand phenomenal hand speed has slowed down.
Joe Silva did not do
Swick any favors by matching him up with Johnson (16-10 MMA, 4-4 UFC) in his first fight back. The TUF Season 9 runner-up is known for his
brawling style. He is very aggressive
and will push Swick as soon as the bell wings. While, Darkness has put on many entertaining
fights his style has proved to be his downfall as he has been caught on
multiple occasions.
This fight is a huge opportunity
for both fighters. Being able to kick
off the main card on Fox gives the winner of the fight a ton of momentum in the
crowded welterweight division.
Swick Round 2 Submission (Guillotine)
Last fall, no one
would believe these guys would be facing off against each other. Joe Lauzon (21-7 MMA, 8-4 UFC) just submitted Melvin Guillard in
less than a minute and was heading to a potential title eliminator fight
against Anthony Pettis. Varner (20-6-1- MMA, 2-1 UFC), was not even in the UFC. In fact, he lost to
Dakota Cochrane, a guy who could not get into the TUF house, on a regional
show.
Since that loss,
Varner has seen a resurgence in his career.
The former WEC put together two wins in the XFC promotion before
stepping in against Edson Barboza at UFC 146.
No one wanted to face Barboza at that time but Varner rose to the
occasion finishing the Brazilian in the first round. This is technically his
second stint in the UFC but he is a far superior than his first time. Three of
his six losses are by submission so he will need to be on the top of his game
against the dangers Lauzon.
J-Lau is a difficult
fighter to judge in the lightweight division. Since his debut against Jens
Pulver in 2006, Lauzon has proven he can hang with anyone in the division. He does everything fairly level, but is elite
when he comes to his submission game. His
guard has caught a number of fighters in his career. The one issue for J-Lau is his cardio. He starts so fast and at such a great pace
that if he does not get a finish early he is trouble in the later rounds.
The longer this fight
stays on thee feet, the better it is for Varner. His goal needs to be to weather the storm and
push this fight to the later rounds.
After his performance against Barboza he will not be taking anyone by surprise.
Varner Decision (29-28)
This sort of, kind of,
possible number one contender fight between two fighters who in their last four
fights are a combined 3-5 is a hard one to predict. Bader (14-2 MMA, 7-2 UFC) is coming off a dominating decision win
over Rampage Jackson that sounds a lot more impressive than it really is.
(Sorry buddy)
The
first match up against Jones was too much at the time for Bader. However, I
think he learned a lot more in his next fight, a loss to Tito Ortiz than he did
against Jones. His key in this one is no shocker, his wrestling. Machida (
The
dragon was most recently seen unconscious on the mat with Jon Jones walking
away like a true BAMF. While many people
will remember the ending sequence, they forget how great Machida Machida
The main event is one
of the most uneven fights to headline a card in years. Rua (20-6 MMA, 4-4 UFC) is a former light
heavyweight champion who only losses in the past 9 years are to current or
former UFC champions as well. Vera (12-5 MMA, 8-5 UFC), on the other hand, is coming off his first
win since August 2009.
Shogun’s last fight
was considered by many to be the fight of the year. He proved that going 5 rounds will not be an
issue for him and I doubt Vera will be bale to push him as much as Henderson
did in that bout. Despite being a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu has only one
submission win in his entire career. When
healthy, Shogun has the hands to knock out anyone and never puts on a boring
fight.
No one is more shocked
to see in Brandon Vera in this position than me. I remember the days when people were talking about
Vera being a champion in two different weight classes. (I’m not lying, look it
up). Call me crazy, but I don’t think a win over Eliot Marshall deserves a
number one contender fight. Also, while
many people point out Vera is 1-2-1 in his last four fights, the two losses are to Jon
Jones and Randy Couture, certainly no shame in that.
Vera is pumped about
this fight. We have seen many times
where a fighter comes out of nowhere and takes advantage of a huge opportunity.
I do not think this fight is one of those times. I expect Shogun to take this early and
without working too hard.
Rua KO Round 1 & earns #1 contender spot
I know what you're thinking, how can their be TWO number one contenders?!?! The way I see it, none of these four men deserve a chance at Jon Jones, if he beats Henderson, with a single win at UFC on Fox 4. I expect the winners of these two fights to go up against each other for an interim title/number one contender fight while Jones takes a fight at heavyweight. It won't be against a top guy, my best guess would be a Ben Rothwell/Cheick Kongo type. That way Jones gets an intriguing fight and the 205ers have a chance to build some momentum before getting stomped by Jones again.
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| Could these two beat Jon Jones in a handicap match? Credit: MMAmania |
If you liked this article please leave a comment below and vote on the poll to the right. Also, I started a weekly podcast called Split Decision on http://www.sportsgeeksusa.com/ with my friend Ryan Penney, needless to say it is pretty awesome so you check that out too.
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