After
the most successful UFC card on Fox history the organization carries
the momentum into Denver for a card headlined by the lightweight
title rematch between Ben Henderson and Frankie Edgar.
This
card sums up an issue I currently have with the UFC. Right now
fighters, especially the champions, have too much power in picking
their fights.Frankie Edgar received this rematch because he refused
to drop to 145. I understand he gave two rematches but one was
because Penn is a legend and the other was because the fight ended in
a draw.
Then,
in the middleweight division Anderson Silva refuses to face Chris
Weidman, the clear number one contender because wins over Demian and
Maia and Mark Munoz are not impressive to his camp. If Silva will
not fight Jon Jones or Weidman who is there left for him? His camp
suggests Rich Franklin, seems like a guy who is more concerned about
his legacy than actually challenging himself.
If
there is a champion who has a right to complain about challengers it
is Jn Jones. I won't get too much into it now, but if Jones does get
bey Henderson, how is Machida the best Dana White 7 Co can offer to
challenge him.
This
weekend's card has plenty of story lines but the one thing we can be
thankful is that DW learned from the Rothwell-Hunt “thriller and
kept the big boys off this card in Denver.
Now
on to the picks....
The
pay-per-view portion of the card card starts with a featherweight
bout that showcases the future of the division. Lawrence (4-0 MMA,
1-0 UFC), at 22 years old, is the elder in this fight and comes from
the most recent TUF season where he lost in the semi-finals to
eventual winner Michael Cheisa. Lawrence bounced back with a two
bonus performance when he knocked John Cofer out cold at the finale.
Holloway
(5-1, 1-1), only 20 years old, bounced back from his first career
loss against Dustin Poirier with a dominating decision over Pat
Schilling in June. Holloway really impressed me in his last fight.
After watching his performance against Poirier I felt that he needed
more time to develop. His striking is explosive but he can get wild
at times.
When
the cast for TUF: Live was announced many picked Lawrence as the guy
to beat. He was a highly successful amateur kickboxing champion and
is a two-time St. Louis Golden Gloves boxing champion. (Thank you
Wikipedia). I'll take Lawrence here collecting another bonus.
Lawrence
KO Round
2
Roberts
(12-2, 1-0) is a Team Jackson product receiving a huge opportunity in
this bout. He defeated Caio Magahalhaes in June by decision. The
win did not set shockwaves throughout the division but due to a
couple of injuries he is now in a fight with all upside for him.
Okami
(26-7, 10-4) needs a win after losing straight to Anderson Silva and
Tim Boetsch. After originally scheduled to face Rousimar Palhares,
Okami should be glad to get a guy like Roberts. It gives hims a
chance to get back on the winning track on a PPV main card. Three
losses in a row will damage any fighter so the best thing for Okami
is to go out and do what he does best. Don't get too wild, move
around, and sprinkle in some take downs. He will not earn any new
fans with this performance but at this point all Okami needs is a
win.
Okami Decision (30-27)
Okami Decision (30-27)
At
first glance this looks like a huge mismatch. Shields (27-6-1, 2-2)
has been a champion in nearly have organization he has competed in
and has notable wins over Yushin Okami, Carlos Condit, Martin
Kampmann and Dan Henderson. After going 2-2 in the Octagon, Shields
is set to make his UFC middleweight debut, a weight he has not fought
at since April 2010. He is a submission ace, but his cardio has been
questioned since coming off to the UFC and it will be interesting to
see how how getting back to this weight effects him.
Herman
(20-7, 7-5) is in the middle of a career renaissance. He has a three
fight winning streak, all finishes, but no one near the caliber of
Shields. Herman's best chance in this fight is to avoid going to the
ground. Despite being a black belt himself, there is no doubt the
best chance for him to win is keeping the fight on his feet.
I
expect to see a vintage Jake Shields out there. The first round will
feature some awkward stand up exchanges before Shields gets top
control in the second and finishes it.
Shields
Submission (Rear Naked Choke) Round 2
A
lightweight battle between two friends is the co-main event. The
build up to this fight has been more about Cerrone (!8-4, 4-1)
calling out Anthony Pettis rather than talking about his scheduled opponent.
Cowboy is coming off a clear-cut decision win over Jeremy Stephens
and is looking to jump to the front of the lightweight division.
Cerrone is dangerous wherever the fight goes but loves finishing his
opponent on the ground. (13 submission wins)
In
October of last year Guillard (30-10-2, 11-6) was on his way to a
title shot. An upset by Joe Lauzon and a submission loss to Jim
Miller through ice on his hot streak. But after a decision win just
over a month ago against Fabricio Camoes, Guillard took this fight on
short notice to get back to the top.
Guillard
appears to be in trouble. Nine of his ten losses have come by
submission and as mentioned before, Cerrone loves that. The two
promise a brawl but despite his gentlemanly drawl I expect Cowboy to
go for the submission early and end this thing.
Cerrone
Submission (Triangle Choke) Round 1
Frankie
Edgar (14-2-1, 9-2-1) aka the king of the rematch looks to regain his
title in the main event. Honestly, I am not that excited for this
fight. It pains me to say that because there are so many great match
ups to make in the 155 pound division. Edgar possesses some of the
best footwork in the UFC and above average wrestling as well. No one
will show more heart in a fight than the New Jersey native but is
that enough to take out the much bigger Henderson (16-2, 4-0)?
In their first fight Edgar looked like a featherweight and Henderson was competing at 170. Smooth has been on a roll since dropping the WEC title to Anthony Pettis in December 2010. The first fight he went toe to toe with Edgar and at the end of the fight looked like he could go five more rounds.
After reviewing their first fight again I still like Henderson in this one. If he throws less kicks and lands another one of those upkicks, he should be able to control the action and defend his title. Just don't expect him to finish Edgar.
Henderson Unanimous Decision (49-46)
In their first fight Edgar looked like a featherweight and Henderson was competing at 170. Smooth has been on a roll since dropping the WEC title to Anthony Pettis in December 2010. The first fight he went toe to toe with Edgar and at the end of the fight looked like he could go five more rounds.
After reviewing their first fight again I still like Henderson in this one. If he throws less kicks and lands another one of those upkicks, he should be able to control the action and defend his title. Just don't expect him to finish Edgar.
Henderson Unanimous Decision (49-46)
 |
| Win or Lose, let's promise to not fight each other again Credit:MMAfighting |
If you liked this article please leave a comment below and vote on the poll to the right. Also, I started a weekly podcast called Split Decision on http://www.sportsgeeksusa.com/ with my friend Ryan Penney, needless to say it is pretty awesome so you check that out too.
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