UFC 142 Preview and Predictions

Credit: memegenerator.net

This past year was a great one for the UFC.  There were many highlights, the Maynard-Edgar wars, the official beginning of the Bones Jones era, the much publicized deals with Strikeforce and Fox and most importantly, Steven Segal revolutionizing the sport.

All that momentum leads to UFC 142, first event of the new year taking place tomorrow in Brazil. The card, as you would expect, features many Brazilians and is highlighted by Jose Aldo defending his featherweight title.  The bout line up isn’t the most exciting on paper, which usually means these fights are going to shock everyone and deliver.  Plus, with this many dynamic strikers and grapplers on the card there is sure to be at least one highlight that we will be talking about for the rest of the year.

On to the predictions…

Edson Barboza vs. Terry Etim

This is a great fight to kick off the main card.  These two fighters always look for the finish and deliver exciting fights. It’s the prototypical match up of striker, Barboza, a muay thai black belt, and a grappler in Etim, four submission of the night bonuses.

The key in this fight is whether or not Etim with his weak wrestling will be able to ground the heavy handed striker.  This is my early pick for fight of the night. Etim has never been knocked out and won’t be this fight but will lose by unanimous decision.

Carlo Prater vs. Erick Silva

Prater who is his making his UFC debut is a late fill in for Siyar Bahadurzada.  He clearly owns the experience edge, 40 fights compared to 14, and even has a win early in his career against Carlos Condit.

Silva is a prospect that many people are excited to see what he becomes, especially coming off his 40 second knockout of Luis Ramos.

I think the veteran Prater is able to use his experience to hang around for a little bit, until Silva strikes with a second round knockout and people start the comparisons to one of his trainers, that other Silva.

Mike Massenzio vs. Rousimar Palhares

Palhares’ fights are always interesting because you never know what he’s going to do in them.  Whether he’s ending fights too soon or too late, they will leave people talking.

Massenzio is a junior college wrestling national champion and is also a black belt in jiu jitsu. Massenzio is capable of winning this fight but he has also had some pretty bad losses in his career (submitted by Brian Stann and TKOd by CB Dollaway.

The only question in this fight is which limb of Massenzio does Palhares want to walk away with it.  I think instead of his customary heel hook Palhares switches things off and ends in the first round with a guillotine.

Vitor Belfort vs. Anthony Johnson

My first thought when I saw the booking of this fight was that the winner of this fight is going to get the knockout of the night bonus.

Johnson, making his middleweight debut, has won it twice, most recently with a head kick knock out on Charlie Brenneman.

Vitor Belfort’s hands don’t need an introduction.  His last four wins have all been via knockout with three of them in the first round. 

This is a huge fight for both of them. Johnson it seemed had gotten his weight under control** and was moving up the 170 pound division with two straight wins but could not turn down this fight.  Belfort looked to be his old self in his last bout against Akiyama but needs to win this fight if ever hopes to fight Anderson again.

I think cardio plays a factor in this fight and I’ll take the younger, better wrestler Johnson with a third round knockout.

Champ Jose Aldo vs. Chad Mendes (for featherweight title)

The first title fight of 2012 could turn into 2010’stitle fight of the year.  Of course, Mendes assumes the role of Chael Sonnen, minus the trash talking and minus laundering.  Aldo has defeated wrestlers in the past but none as explosive as Mendes.

Jose Aldo was one of the fighters that made me fall in love with this sport. I loved the WEC days and Aldo personified them.  He had some vicious knockouts and threw flying knees like they were going out of style.  But something changed in him when he TKOd Mike brown for the belt. He fights a lot safer now and has looked vulnerable at times.

Mendes’ striking is what will decide how this fight goes. Obviously he does not want to stand and trade with Aldo but he needs if his always- improving striking can set up his take downs, he’ll be tough to beat. Unlike in 2010 I don’ the Brazilian will be able to pull off a submission and Mendes wins a unanimous decision 49-46.

Bonus prediction: Mendes’ win will be the first of three titles coming to the Team Alpha Male camp this year. I like Faber in the trilogy fight against Cruz and Benavidez to win the flyweight tournament.

We bring pies and take titles
Credit: http://fighterxfashion.com

 
**Edit: Written before Johnson's blown weight... Some things never change.

Its that time of the year...

Christmas decorations are everywhere, everything has a peppermint flavor and people are complaining about the BCS.  For many years, I have been a supporter of the BCS but this year I actually had some doubts.

Honey Badger doesn't
care who he plays

The thing that hurt the BCS this year I believe is that LSU is such a dominant number one team. Most years people have a couple teams who they argue who is the best team in the nation. But this year is a no doubter based on the Tigers’ impressive resume as well as losses by every other team in the nation.  So, the next argument becomes who is the number two team.

There are many arguments to be made that Oklahoma State is the number two team in the nation.  They have wins over three currently ranked teams in the BCS, #14 Oklahoma, #8 Kansas State, #12 Baylor, compared to two for Alabama, #6 Arkansas, #22 Penn State.

Another point I have a hard time getting past is that Oklahoma State lost on the road while Alabama lost at home.  Granted, the caliber of opponent was much different between but champions take care of business at home.

The final sticking point for me is that the Cowboys won their conference championship while Alabama wasn’t even in the conference championship game.  While Oklahoma State was making a statement against their rivals this weekend, Alabama was sitting at home, hoping voters remembers their lofty preseason rank and program prestige.

The Crimson Tide is riding mostly on preseason hype. A preseason #2 ranking and 14 previous national championships will earn a program that. But if voters look at who has the least damaging loss, that argument clearly favors the Crimson Tide. I cannot imagine a world where a football team loses to Iowa State and still plays for a national title.

Every game matters...
Except this year apparently

Based on the overwhelming support for OK State… I think the BCS ultimately got it right.  If the goal of the BCS is to have the two best teams face each other then I guess, mission accomplished.  Would I rather see LSU-Oklahoma State? Absolutely, Alabama had their shot at the Tigers, why not give Oklahoma State a chance?

Make sure to leave a comment below.
Vote on the new poll over on the right
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Week 10 Ramblings

After another gap in posts I figured it was time to post about this NFL season.  After 10 weeks teams finally have their identities figured out but a couple questions remain. 

Question #1: The Texans have the #1 seed in the AFC but can they overcome injuries of Andre Johnson and Mario Williams and maintain that seed?

Can Arian Foster run Houston
all the way to Indy?

I have been all-in on the Texans every year it seems and this year they might finally prove me right. They have clearly taken advantage of a Peyton Manningless AFC South.  Plus, there is no runaway favorite in the AFC. The duo of Arian Foster and Ben Tate along with the return of Andre Johnson might push them to the top.

If Mario Williams was healthy they would be a no doubt Super Bowl contender but their lack of playoff experience might catch up to them. It’s critical for the Texans to gain home-field advantage because it will be very difficult for the Texans to win in New England, Pittsburgh, or Baltimore in January.  

Question #2: Are the 49ers a legitimate threat to the Packers and the rest of the NFC to reach the Super bowl? 

Does this look like a Super Bowl
winning quarterback?

My friend and I have a $50 dollar bet every year on whether or not the 49ers make the playoffs. For years, this was always worked as a nice holiday bonus for me, but for the first time since 2002 it looks like I am going to lose this bet. 

At 8-1 the 49ers have to be taken seriously, but where do they rank on teams most likely to win the NFC? I’m not ready to crown them in the top three yet. They have a couple quality wins but I am far from sold on Alex Smith.  After seven years Smith can’t just turn into a Super Bowl quarterback. The defense is legitimate but they are not an all-time great one and that’s what the 49ers need with Smith as QB.

Question #3: What is going on with the Dream team?

Ever since back up quarterback Vince Young gave the moniker “dream team” to the Philadelphia Eagles a target immediately was put on their backs. After this week’s loss to the Arizona Cardinals Larry Fitzgeralds, they are now 3-6.

Just kidding guys

Five of those losses include blown fourth quarter leads. The problems are abundant: receivers are skipping meetings, the linebackers are too inexperienced, they turn the ball over too much but I think the biggest problem is the absence of a running game. 

This may seem crazy when you look at LeSean McCoy’s stats but the problem with the Eagles is they don’t have the ability to run a four minute offense.  McCoy gets his yard bunches, he isn’t able to grind the clock down.  This allows opponents to have a chance to come back and as we have seen this year, they usually do.

Quick thoughts:

Win or lose big ups to Andy Dalton this week in Pittsburgh. I was dead wrong about him in the draft.

The Lions must have watched too much UFC/Pacquiao this weekend, seemed like they were to win a fight, not a football game.

Brandon Wheedon jumped ahead of Andrew Luck on my fake Heisman ballot, but how will his age effect where he gets drafted?

The best fighter to never win a title

It has been awhile since I've put a post together. Since my last post I have graduated and have started a great new job at AM 1530 here in Chicago. One thing that hasn't changed has my passion for sports, especially mixed martial arts. UFC 136 is this weekend and has a stacked card featuring two title fights.

Kenny Florian fights Jose Aldo in the co-main event for the featherweight title in only his second fight in the division. It is no secret that Florian has struggled in title fights in his past but this fight got me thinking where he ranks among the best fighters to never hold the belt. 

For the record, I am talking about major promotions (UFC, Pride, Strikeforce), sorry EliteXC.

I finish fights... Unless its
one of those title fights.

His 12-4 record in the Octagon, 16-5 overall, is very impressive. The more interesting fact is that he came into the UFC on the first season of the Ultimate fighter as a middleweight and now finds himself fighting as a featherweight. His success has spanned multiple weight classes but at age 35 this could be Florian's last chance at a title.


He faces a very tough this weekend and I personally think he will come up short again but losing to the 145 pound version of Anderson Silva should not tarnish his legacy.


Another current fighter that deserves to be on everyone’s pound for pound rankings is Jon Fitch. His record of 23-1-1 includes 13 wins in the UFC. But despite all his success he has only been given one title shot and his next fight against Johny Hendricks probably isn't going to get him any closer one.

Fans are known to be very critical of Fitch's style of fighting which has known to out even the worst insomniac into a daze. But in the end the only stat that matters is W and Fitch has put plenty of those on the board.

The last fighter is a living legend of the sport and has the respect of everyone in the industry. Jeremy Horn has fought all over the world and his 88 wins prove how successful he has been. He has beaten Chael Sonnen three times in three different ways. Other notable names on his record include Dan Severn, Chuck Liddell, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, Randy Couture and Anderson Silva.

He lost his only two chances at UFC title glory against Frank Shamrock at UFC 17 and seven years later against Liddell at UFC 54. Horn is also a great instructor as well. He has been an integral part of Matt Hughes and Rich Franklin each winning titles.

I hope to have another post up soon, comment below with what you think of the article and some UFC 136 predictions   I'm off to Lincoln, Nebraska this weekend to hang out with my rugby guys and hopefully see Nebraska get their first Big Ten win.

The End of Strikeforce?

Strikeforce.com

A short trip back home to Chicago over the weekend provided me with some great things: a chance to see my baby cousins get baptized, food that didn’t come from a cardboard box and most importantly, a place to watch Showtime.  Saturday night I was able to watch Henderson-Fedor and I came away with one thought as Herb Dean stepped in to save the "the Last Emporer"

Does Strikeforce have as much of a chance of staying relevant as Fedor does in regaining his glory?

Strikeforce always knew it was second fiddle to the UFC, which was made even more evident when Zuffa bought them.  SF always had a couple things going for them though.  They built up a solid heavyweight division and hoped to have a Grand Prix.  They also became the go-to organization for women’s MMA.  And they had the one name the UFC could never sign in Fedor.

But, the Grand Prix has lost its luster due to Fedor’s exit in the first round and recently cutting what some people think is the world’s number one heavyweight.  SF has also lost their two largest names in women’s in MMA because no one wants to fight Cyborg and Gina Carano is off becoming a movie star. 

Now, Fedor has lost three in a row, their best fighter has gone over to the UFC and lost their most intriguing heavyweight, what does promotion really offer?

Coker should be scared about his future, homie

Quick question, name the male Strikeforce champions… 

The answer would be:

LW: Gilbert Melendez

WW: Nick Diaz

MW: Ronaldo Souza

LHW: Dan Henderson

HW: Allistair Overeem

Effectively, SF has three vacant championships.  Diaz and Overeem are no longer with the organization and Henderson is a free agent after beating Fedor over the weekend.  Melendez is must see and definitely could do damage in the UFC but the average fan probably doesn’t know and isn’t paying money to see Souza.

The UFC’s plan was to originally keep SF on its own until the end of 2012 but I don’t think it can last that long.  I like the Challenger series because it gives up and coming fighters a showcase along with Bellator.  But with champions leaving and other top competitors already crossing over to the UFC, there are far too many question marks surrounding the organization for it to remain economically viable.