UFC 145 Preview and Predictions

After a 6 week hiatus the UFC returned to our lives last week with the UFC on Fuel 2 card. The hype only grew Alexander Gustaffson after his win but ultimately that show was nothing more than a pre-game show for UFC 145.

It seems the build up to the Jones-Evans fight has lasted years and Saturday night cannot come soon enough.  The drama between the two has been much publicized as the world waits to see these training partners turned enemies fight for the belt.

But before I go into the predictions and preview section I encourage everyone to check out the Eddie Alvarez-Shinya Aoki rematch taking place at Bellator 66 tonight.  They are two of the best lightweights in the world outside the UFC and for me, is the second most anticipated fight this weekend.

Predictions/Previews

 
Year record: 18-11

John “The Natural” Alessio versus Mark Bocek

John Alessio returns to the octagon for his third stint in the Octagon. He is 0-3 all-time in the UFC but he did experience some success in the WEC going 4-1 back in 2007. After spending 13 years as welterweight he made the cut to 155 pounds last year and has gone 2-0 at the new weight. He comes from a good camp in Xtreme Couture and with 34 wins he definitely has experience necessary to contend in this fight.

Bocek is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt with 7 of his 10 career coming from submission.  There is no doubt that he is looking forward to this grappling match up. Bocek possesses a 6-4 record in the UFC but with 3 of those losses to Jim Miller, Frankie Edgar and Benson Henderson it’s not as bad as you would think. 

While Bocek may never reach the top of his division he should be able to handle the journeyman Alessio no problem.

Bocek Submission (Rear Naked Choke) Round 2

Mark “the Machine” Hominick versus Eddie “The Filipino Phenom” Yagin

What a difference a year makes for Mark Hominick. A year ago at this time “The Machine” was riding a 5 fight win streak into a title fight against Jose Aldo. After dropping that bout by decision and then getting KOd in his home country by Chang Sung Jung in just 7 seconds, Hominick will be looking to get back in the win column.

At first glance it may look like Yagin will be overmatched by Hominick. But Yagin has played spoiler before when he defeated Joe Soto in the finals of the Tachi Palace Fights tournament and subsequently cost Soto a spot in that season’s Bellator tournament. Yagin did lose by decision debut in his UFC to Junior Assunção, and will need to be much more aggressive in this fight if he hopes to see a third fight in the Octagon.

Hominick TKO Round One

Miguel Torres versus Michael “Mayday” McDonald

Miguel Torres was a star in the WEC three years ago. He was the reigning Bantamweight champion and you were guaranteed to be entertained in every one of his fights. He had a wreckless style that worked out for him. But since his war with Takeya Mizugaki at WEC 40, one of my personal all-time favorite fights, Torres is just a pedestrian 3-3. He fights much safer now but still remains a force in the division.

Mayday is in the position Torres used to be.  He is only 21 years old and currently riding a 7 fight win streak.  Many people look at him and see a future champion. He has finishing power with 8 KOs and 4 submissions among his 14 wins but Torres is easily his toughest opponent to date.

The way to beat Torres is with a strong wrestling base (Benavidez, Johnson fights) and McDonald has not shown that elite skill set yet. If Torres goes back into his old brawling days he’ll be in trouble but he is too smart of a fighter to engage in that style with Mayday.

Torres Unanimous Decision 29-28

Brendan “The Hybrid”Schaub” versus Ben Rothwell

Schaub was cruising to a title shot before falling to Antônio Rodrigo Nogueira in Brazil last summer. Despite the loss, I still Schaub as a top 10 guy in the division who is only 2-3 wins away from a title shot. I hope the former NFL player used his time off to improve because a highlight reel win here could fast track him to a title shot in a shallow heavyweight division.

Rothwell lost his last fight to Mark Hunt in a bout that many will remember for his poor cardio. The high altitude of Denver can only take so much blame and you have to imagine that’s sponsored the Wisconsin native. Rothwell does possess strong ground and pound and a tremendous chin but outside of a one punch KO I don’t see how he wins this fight.

Schaub 3^rd round KO

Rory “Ares” MacDonald versus Che “Beautiful” Mills

Just like the other McDonald of a different spelling, “Ares” has the makings of a future UFC champion. In his four fight stint in the UFC he holds wins over Mike Guymon, Mike Pyle and Nate Diaz. His only loss is to interim welterweight champion Carlos Condit and MacDonald had that fight in the bag before being TKO’d with 7 seconds left.

Mills is coming off a knockout of the night win over Chris Cope in his UFC debut. He possesses strong striking skills and has a ton of potential himself. Unfortunately for him, I don’t see his striking as that big of an advantage and think MacDonald has the edge in every other skill set. Like Rothwell, Mills needs to hope for a one punch KO to win this one.

MacDonald Submission (Arm Bar) Round 2

Jon “Bones” Jones versus “Suga” Rashad Evans

This fight has been waiting to happen since their days sparring at Greg Jackson’s. Rashad feels like Greg Jackson was shady and not loyal to him while Jon Jones thinks he’s just a whiner. Despite a more relaxed approach from the two this week, it is always exciting when there is legitimate bad blood between two guys in a fight.

Jones has been a wrecking ball through the light heavyweight division since he debuted in 2008.  Every fight he gets better and his hit list includes stoppages of the top guys in his division except one guy…

Rashad Evans is a fighter I think is constantly underrated by fans that seem to dislike him without a legitimate reason. He has his own hit list of UFC legends (Ortiz, Liddell) and is 12-1-1 all-time in the Octagon.

Evans has only been stopped once before, in hilarious fashion against Lyota Machida but he has been dropped in three of his last five fights. The wrestling skills match up close to me but the fight gets very interesting if Evans can get Jones on his back, something we have not seen happen yet.

Jones may have had the best year of anyone in MMA history in 2011.  He defeated Ryan Ryan Bader, Shogun Rua, Quinton "Rampage" Jackson and Lyoto Machida. Knocking off three former champions in one career is impressive, let alone one career.

Jones’ length is the key to this fight. If Evans can get inside he has a shot but no one has quite yet. The fact that Jones is a 4-1 favorite is ridiculous to me, if there is anyone in this division that can stop him its Rashad. Unlike the other fights where I cannot imagine the underdogs winning when I close my eyes I see Evans’ hand raised.

Rashad Evans TKO Round 4

Look for this to happen Saturday night
Credit: CagePotato.com

If you liked this article please leave a comment below and vote on the poll to the right a

Also, I started a weekly podcast called Split Decision on http://www.sportsgeeksusa.com/ with my friend Ryan Penney. Feel free to leave your predictions on our facebook page. The show airs 3 PM daily Monday-Friday. 

Please follow myself and the show on Twitter.  We recap all the fights and news in the MMA world while also interviewing fighters, promoters and trainers. 

Full Updated Rankings

Instead of releasing the rankings in installments I decided it would be easier to release the divisions all at once.  That way in my preview articles I can make note when a top 10 guy is fighting.

Next up for the champ is #2 Alistair Overeem May 26th
Credit: BloodyElbow.com

Heavyweight

1. Junior Dos Santos

2. Alistair Overeem

3. Cain Velasquez

4. Frank Mir

5. Fabrico Werdum

6. Josh Barnett

7. Shane Carwin

8. Daniel Cormier

9. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira 

10. Brendan Schaub

Just Outside: Stefan Struve, Mark Hunt, Travis Browne

Light Heavyweight
1. Jon Jones

2. Rashad Evans

3. Dan Henderson

4. Maurico "Shogun" Rua

5. Lyota Machida

6. Phil Davis

7. Ryan Bader

8. Alexander Gustaffson

9. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira

10. Quinton "Rampage" Jackson

Just Outside: Gegard Mousasi, Forrest Griffin, Rafael Cavalcante

The rematch everyone has been waiting for
takes place June 16th in Brazil
Credit: fiveouncesofpain.com

Middleweight

1. Anderson Silva

2. Chael Sonnen

3. Michael Bisping

4. Yushin Okami

5. Mark Munoz

6. Vitor Belfort

7. Hector Lombard

8. Brian Stann 

9.  Luke Rockhold

10. Rousimar Palhares

Just Outside: Chris Weidman, Nate Marquardt, Alan Belcher

Welterweight

1. Georges St. Pierre

2. Carlos Condit

3. Nick Diaz

4. Jake Ellenberger

5. Josh Koscheck 

6. Johny Hendricks

7. Martin Kampmann

8. Jon Fitch

9. Jake Shields

10. Ben Askren

Just Outside: Rory McDonald, Diego Sanchez

The new champ is all smiles while he waits his next opponent.
Credit: MMAmania.com

Lightweight
1. Ben Henderson

2. Frankie Edgar

3. Gilbert Melendez

4. Gray Maynard

5.  Anthony Pettis

6. Jim Miller

7. Shinya Aoki

8. Clay Guida

9. Nate Diaz 

10. Michael Chandler

Just Outside: Eddie Alvarez, Donald Cerrone

Featherweight

1. Jose Aldo

2. Hatsu Hioki

3. Chad Mendes

4. Dustin Poirier

5. Kenny Florian

6. Pat Curran

7. Erik Koch

8. Tatsuya Kawajiri

9. Patricio Freire

10. Diego Nunes

Just Outside: Marlon Sandro, Iuri Alcantara

Comment below about what you think about the rankings and vote on the poll to the right.  Also, I am a part of a weekly podcast called Split Decision on http://www.sportsgeeksusa.com/ with my friend Ryan Penney. The show airs 3 PM daily Monday-Friday.

Please follow myself and the show on Twitter and like it on Facebook. We recap all the fights and news in the MMA world while also interviewing fighters, promoters and trainers.

UFC on FX 2: Introducing the Fun Size Divsion

I dare you not to smile.
Credit: MMAfighting.com

Coming off a historic night in Japan where we saw highlight-reel knockouts, a memorable comeback and a new lightweight champion crowned the most important I realized is that every MMA fan now has a soft spot for a Japanese translator.  She is adorable, that’s for sure and who wouldn’t to get their hands on that pen of hers?

Unfortunately, the UFC chose to go to an English speaking country this week so there is no chance of another twitter-fueled crush.  The bright side is that since the since the card is on FX that means more free fights. 

Prediction time

Last Week: 4-3

Year: 16-9

I was hoping for a big night last weekend with my picks but in a card that had surprises like UFC 144 I’ll taking going over .500.

Court “The Crusher” McGee vs. Constantinos Philippou

Court McGee is one of the The Ultimate Fighter champions that I believe people forget about. HE is not a wild personality or an overly flashy fighter but his 13-1 record shows that he gets the job done when he steps into the Octagon.

Philippou had a chance to be on the cast of the TUF season that McGee won, but he lost in the qualifying round to get to the house.  Missing out on the show didn’t deter him as he eventually found his way to the big show and owns a 2-1 record in the brand.

Mcgee looks stiff to me when he fights.  But after three wins to start his UFC career I expect him to be more relaxed and confident going into this fight. Philippou has one punch knockout power but questionable cardio. The first two minutes of this fight will be very important.

McGee Unanimous Decision 30-27

Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson vs. Ian “Uncle Creepy” McCall

The first ever flyweight tournament could be called the “Drop down a division because we can’t be Dominick Cruz Invitational” as 3 of the 4 fighters have fallen to the bantamweight champion. One thing to keep in mind is that even though Johnson and Benavidez have wrestled at these weights, they have never had a MMA bout at 125 pounds.

Johnson and McCall is a great bout to kick off the division for the UFC. Johnson is a fan favorite who possesses great speed and takedowns, which should only be more explosive fighting as his natural weight.

McCall is a name that the hardcore internet fans know and has a great story. Since losing to the aforementioned Cruz, Uncle Creepy has been unstoppable. He is 4-0 in the flyweight division, including a win over Jussier De Silva, thought to be the #1 flyweight in the world at the time.

If you loved seeing fights like Cruz-Faber, then you do not want to miss the one as it is sure to be action packed.  Johnson may be a great wrestler, but McCall possesses solid takedown defense, great muay thai and can submit Johnson, who struggles off his back.

McCall Submission (Rear Naked Choke)  Round 3

Joseph Benavidez vs. Yasuhiro Urushitani

The second semi-final match up is between Team Alpha Male product and “Joe-Jitsu” creator, Joseph Benavidez. McCall put it best in the promotional video when he called him a 125 pound Urijah Faber.  I would agree with that, but add the note Benavidez has more explosive takedowns.

Urushitani, like McCall is a champion from a different promotion coming in to compete against the best in the world. He is riding a 5 fight win streak that includes capturing and defending the Shoot championship for their 123 pound division. His resume also includes a victory over the latest TUF champion, John Dodson, a fighter who is expected to make waves in the new flyweight division.

Expect Benavidez to utilize his usual game plan of take downs where he will grind his opponent and then look for submissions. Urushitani has the cardio to go the distance and has the striking edge on his younger opponent.

Benavidez Submission (Guillotine Choke) Round 2

Thiago “Pitbull” Alves vs. Martin “Hitman” Kampmann

Alves’ career in the UFC has been interesting to say the least. He has missed weight on multiple occasions, tested positive for banned diuretics and lost his only shot at the title against GSP. Since that loss, Alves has not had a quality win in the Octagon but that could change this weekend.

Kampmann is a top 10 welterweight in my rankings and if not for coming up short a few judges’ scorecards (I gave him the Shields and the Sanchez fights) he could easily be competing for the belt right.  In fact, he holds a win over the current interim champion, Carlos Condit.

The main event is a match up of elite power (Alves) going up against a very technical kick boxer (Kampmann). Both fighters have potential to make noise in the division and a win here could put them one or two fights from a title a shot.

Kampmann Split Decision

BONUS PREDICTIONS!!!!!

Saturday night in Columbus, Ohio Strikeforce has its own card going, headlined by a title fight between Miesha Tate and Ronda Rousey.  I have never seen as much hype going into a women’s fight than these two. Carana versus Cyborg was popular but I don’t remember Carano doing a media tour quite like Rousey.

The card on Showtime features lightweight contenders K.J. Noons, of don’t be scared homie fame against Josh Thompson. Also featured is former UFC fighter Paul Daley, former SF Champion Ronaldo Souza and the always entertaining Scott Smith. 

Quick Picks

Smith Round 3 TKO

Souza Submission (Rear Naked Choke) Round 1

Daley KO Round 1

Thompson Unanimous Decision 29-28
Rousey Submission (arm bar) Round 2 

Who will become the biggest non-juicing (Sorry, Cyborg)
badass in Strikeforce's women division?
Credit:MixedMartialArts.com

If you liked this article please leave a comment below and vote on the poll to the right.  Also, as stated above, I started a weekly podcast called Split Decision on http://www.sportsgeeksusa.com/ with my friend Ryan Penney. The show airs 3 PM daily Monday-Friday. 

Please follow myself and the show on Twitter.  We recap all the fights and news in the MMA world while also interviewing fighters, promoters and trainers. 

UFC 144: A lot of Action, Even More Sexy

The UFC makes its return to pay-per-view this weekend with seven, yes, SEVEN main card fights.  This card has a combination of past Japanese greats as well as past and future stars, highlighted by a main event title fight.  All this leads to great action that hopefully won't cause seizures like other Japanese programing.

This is the first time in almost 12 years the UFC has made the trip to Japan.  The event takes place at Saitama Super Arena, a legendary home to great Pride battles of the past.  THe past few years has seen Japanese MMA take a step back as Pride disbanded and Dram cards have become more infrequent.  Hopefully, this trip to what some call the "Mecca of MMA" is a step in revitalizing the spott in Japan.

Prediction Time:
Last week: 5-1
Year: 12-6

Coming off a great UFC on Fuel where my predictions were made on the Facebook page of my MMA radio show, Split Decision, I look to continue my winning ways with a 7-0 night for UFC 144.

Anthony "Showtime" Pettis vs. Joe "J-Lau" Lauzon
The fact that this is the first fight on the main card is very surprising to me.  Lauzon is coming off a huge first round upset of Melvin Guillard and Pettis is one of the sport's rising stars.  This fight could end up being a #1 contender's fight depending on how the main event shakes out.

J-Lau has the experience edge but I don't think he has the dominating wrestling necessary to ground the unorthodox Pettis. The longer the fight goes, the more likely I see a Showtime victory.

Pettis Submission Round Three

Hatsu Hioki vs. Bart "Bartimus" PalaszewskiBoth of these fighters are coming off victorious UFC debuts. Hioki returns to Japan after a split decision win over the very technical George Roop, while Palaszewski comes into enemy teritory riding high after a first round knock out of Tyson Griffin.

A win over Bartimus most likely gives Hioki the next crack against champion Jose Aldo. Hioki took some shots against Roop and that is something he cannot afford to do against the much more powerful Palaszweski. With over 80 professional bouts between the two this is a fight that should entertain the fans.

Palazewski KO round 2

Yushin "Thunder" Okami vs. Tim "the Barbarian" Boetsch
When I first saw this fight I was surprised at how far down the ladder Okami had fallen after losing to Anderson Silva.  Obviously, they wanted him on the Japan card but in the MMA world few fighters are more disrespected than Okami. He constantly finds ways to win, and his only recent losses are to the top guys in the division Sonnen and Silva.

Boetch is 2-0 since dropping down to middleweight, but faces a huge a step up in competition here. Unfortunately, whenever he gets a chance to make a statement he ends up on the losing end.  Anything can happen in a MMA fight but I have a hard time seeing Boetsch winning this one.

Okami Decision 30-27

Yoshihiro "Sexyama" Akiyama vs Jake Shields

Can you handle all the Sexiness?

This is a hard one for me to gauge.  How do I pick between one of the greatest nicknames in the sport and the Cesar Gracie fighter? Sexyama is making his welterweight debut in front of a Japanese crowd where he'll be treated like a star. His Octagon career has not been nearly as impressive as his sexiness, going 1-3 in his four fights, with that one win in his debut even being questionable.

He faces a man on a rare losing as well. Jake Shields hadn't lost since 2004 before falling to GSP and then to Jake Ellenberger.  The former Elite XC and Strikeforce champ is determined to get back on his winning ways and his experience fighting in Japan will help him here.

Shields Submission Round 2

Mark Hunt vs. Cheick Kongo
Hunt returns to country where his journey started years ago looking to impress after his most recent fight bout gas fest against Ben Rothwell where even though he came out victorious it did not do much to boost his career.


Kongo is on a roll in his career. He is unbeaten in his last four fights, with notable wins over Pat Barry and Matt Mitrione.  A win here will likely get him in the top 10 of many MMA rankings.


Kongo Unanimous Decision 30-27
Quinton "Rampage" Jackson vs. Ryan "Darth" Bader

Rampage returns to the land where his jumbo chain and trademark howl made him a star.  Unfortunately he has questions about how seriously he took the fight and how healthy he is ater he showed up overweight.  A couple days ago, I was thinking we were going to see vintage Rampage, now I'm not so sure.


Bader is a fighter who I think overachieved early on in his UFC career.  He was a straight wrestler for much of his career and he was able to ride that to a fight with the much more versatile Jon Jones. I think his loss to Jones and Tito Ortiz may have helped Bader in the long run and he looked great in his first round KO of Jason Brilz. I expect Bader to use his trademark wrestling in this one to grind out his legendary opponent.

Bader Unanimous Decision 29-28
Frankie "The Answer" Edgar vs. Benson "Smooth" Henderson

The main event is one that I did not expect to see when the WEC was absorbed by the UFC. Henderson lost his title to Pettis in the finale, Donald Cerrone ready to make an instant impact and a number of UFC lightweights stood in front of Henderson.  But after three wins in the Octagon there is little doubt Smooth deserves this shot.

Henderson, like many lightweights, will have the height and reach advantage over the champion.  But unlike Edgar's previous opponents I think Henderson also has the speed and cardio to keep up with Edgar.

Earlier I talked about how Okami was disrespected by many, but thats nothing compared to the way people treat Edgar. Hes beaten two legends, Sherk and Penn (twice) and KOd the only man to only defeat him.  No matter how successful he is, people constantly say he belongs in the featherweight division.  His fights tend to be marathons, three of his last four fights have gone the full 25 minutes and he never gives up, getting comparisons to Rocky Balboa.

I should learn my lesson by now but I'm taking Henderson in this one.  He has shown he can go 25 minutes before (twice in WEC title fights) and seems unstoppable right now.

Henderson Unanimous Decision 49-46 48-47 48-47

Which will lead into Henderson-Pettis II...

Who Complains if we see one of these again?
Credit:ESPN.com

If you liked this article please leave a comment below and vote on the poll to the right.  Also, as stated above, I started a weekly podcast called Split Decision on http://www.sportsgeeksusa.com/ with my friend Ryan Penney. The show airs 3 PM daily Monday-Friday.

Please follow myself and the show on Twitter.  We recap all the fights and news in the MMA world while also interviewing fighters, promoters and trainers.

Heavyweight Rankings

Last week was the first time in forever that there was not a huge MMA show to get excited about.  It got me thinking about what I could do to stay active on this blog.

I decided to put together rankings for each division, starting with the heavyweights. Ultimately the only purpose they have is to act as a talking point. But rankings are fun just because of the debate they cause among fans. Let me know what you think and leave a comment below.

Heavyweights


1. Junior Dos Santos
2. Alistair Overeem
3. Cain Velasquez
4. Frank Mir
5. Fabrico Werdum
6. Josh Barnett
7. Shane Carwin
8. Daniel Cormier
9. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira 
10. Brendan Schaub

Will Junior Dos Santos still be champion after going up
against #2 Alistair Overeem at UFC 146